2021go

This is the cognitive model I evolved after the new high of BTC in March. Macro: Musk led the way in 20-21, ETF led the way in 23-24. Market sentiment: Originally planned to raise interest rates in 19, but due to the epidemic, had to continue easing, market optimism. In 23, the halt in raising interest rates combined with BTC ETF and further expectations of rate cuts, market optimism. BTC trend is similar. The red box indicates turnover after the top, in 21 due to the collapse caused by 519, turnover was sufficient, in 24 without a black swan event, the turnover was very sluggish. So my previous judgment was that there is still one last round. I believe that the real rate cut combined with the US election will lead to another bear market, because it will take a long time for the rate cut to release liquidity, during which the US dollar will flow back and be redistributed to high-quality assets worldwide. In the second half of 21 to 22, crazy liquidity will be squeezed out of the market before the rate hike, and in 24, a similar scenario should play out before the rate cut.