Nonsense - Market Situation

Sep 15, 2023#胡说八道212

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The author believes that the real peak of the bull market was in April 2021, not in November. They also mention the distribution and accumulation of chips in different market phases. The author predicts another market rally but acknowledges the possibility of a negative macroeconomic event causing a downturn. They also note that current sentiment is worse than in November and that emotional bottom may not necessarily align with price bottom.

Screenshot 2023-09-15 194248

Put the words first, I've seen more, if you see emptiness, it must be you.

The real peak of the bull market was in April 2021, not the price peak in November.
1⃣ corresponds to a complete distribution.
2⃣ corresponds to the bottom range, with the most accumulated chips dumped by FTX.
3⃣ corresponds to the oscillation in the past six months, with the aim of squeezing out the chips in 2⃣ as much as possible. From the trading volume, it is obvious that fewer and fewer chips are willing to be given up.
In conclusion
I am optimistic about the next wave of market trends. If it really happens, the ceiling is shown in the chart. As I said before, those who are bearish also have their reasons, but I think there is only one possibility, which is that the macro situation becomes very bad (the appearance of a black swan). Otherwise, it is difficult to see such a situation.

Looking back, at this point in time, most people's emotions are worse than in November last year. Perhaps the emotional bottom is not necessarily the price bottom.